Ad curbs to widen gap with offshore gambling, trade analysis argues, citing A$3.9bn estimated annual losses

A trade analysis published by iGaming Business on 14 April 2026 argues that Australia's tightening restrictions on gambling advertising will push more demand towards illegal offshore operators. The piece is framed around the commercial interests of Waterhouse VC, which it says benefits as licensed operators come under pressure. It is an opinion-led industry article, and its conclusions should be read in that light.

What the cited figures claim

Much of the argument rests on a 2025 report by H2 Gambling Capital, commissioned by Responsible Wagering Australia. According to the article, H2 estimates Australians lose AU$3.9 billion a year to illegal sites. It also says the share of gambling activity captured by the regulated market, known as channelisation, fell from 74 per cent in 2021 to 64 per cent. Over two years, onshore betting is said to have declined by 5 per cent while offshore grew by 14 per cent.

The article says online casino now accounts for 26 per cent of all online gambling expenditure by Australians, according to H2. Online casino is banned outright in Australia. In-play online sports betting is also prohibited, with narrow exceptions such as wholly telephone-based betting. The source does not set out H2's methodology.

The analysis also cites H2 estimates that racing fees, sports fees, point-of-consumption tax, GST, corporate income tax and other charges together amount to roughly 40 per cent of gross gaming revenue, or 54.4 per cent of net win. It points to compliance pressure on licensed operators. AUSTRAC began civil penalty proceedings against Entain in December 2024, alleging serious and systemic AML/CTF failures. Crown was ordered to pay an AU$450 million penalty in 2023. The article does not report the outcome of the Entain proceedings.

The advertising package

On 2 April 2026, the Albanese government announced a package that includes:

- caps and bans on TV and radio gambling ads; - restrictions on online ads unless users are logged in, over 18 and able to opt out; - bans on celebrity and sports-player appearances; - bans on odds-style ads targeting sports fans; - bans on gambling ads in sports venues and on players' and officials' uniforms.

Reforms are due to begin from 1 January 2027.

The article says this is narrower than the recommendations of the 2023 parliamentary inquiry led by Murphy, titled "You win some, you lose more". That inquiry recommended a national online gambling regulator and a phased ban on gambling advertising over three years. The article notes the April 2026 package did not include a single national regulator, leaving the layered federal and state framework intact.

Offshore reach and enforcement limits

The analysis says enforcement is active but structurally limited. It states that ACMA has blocked more than 1,500 illegal gambling websites since 2019, but that blocked sites can reappear under new domains.

It also cites H2's consumer survey, which found three in five Australian online players had seen advertising for illegal offshore gambling, most commonly via social media and influencer content. According to the article, half of those using illegal offshore sites were registered with BetStop.

The article points to livestreaming as a channel. It cites Stream Hatchet data that Kick recorded 4.5 billion hours watched in 2025, up 131 per cent year on year. It cites Similarweb data that the platform's largest audience segment is aged 18 to 24. It also says Bloomberg Businessweek reported in February 2026 that one high-profile streamer appeared to have received at least 26,000 Ether from Stake between November 2021 and March 2025, about US$78 million at transaction-time exchange rates. Bloomberg also reported, per the article, that Stake paid clippers $500 per million views before raising the rate to $800 in late 2025. These are the article's secondhand reports and have not been independently verified here. The source does not include responses from Kick or Stake.

The piece concludes that regulation is shrinking the regulated market but not demand. The source text is cut off before its final sentence. It does not discuss player harm in detail or offer evidence on how the advertising rules will work in practice.